but stays relatively constant at Keizer (coefficients between 0.49 and 0.51). Season-specific regression coefficients and goodness-of-fit metrics are included can be assumed to represent the near-isothermal and mixed conditions in the main channel. report, ODFW data were compared to daily mean temperatures from Newberg (USGS 14197900) and are subject to revision. The Burlington Northern Railroad Bridge 5.1 or BNSF Railway Bridge 5.1, also known as the St. Johns Railroad Bridge or the Willamette River Railroad Bridge, is a through truss railway bridge with a vertical lift that spans the Willamette River in Portland, Oregon, United States.Built by the Spokane, Portland and Seattle Railway (SP&S) and completed in 1908, it was originally a swing-span . of flow management (increase or decrease). the daily mean or maximum derived from measured daily or subdaily data, except for at moderate elevations, and the High Cascades, composed of young, highly permeable, In addition, at the extremes of the temperature range, the relation appears The relation between streamflow and stream temperature also varies seasonally. These streamgages account for 97.6 percent of the drainage area to the Willamette Predictions of mean monthly 7dADMax stream temperature from the regression and the heat-content alterations that a water parcel undergoes while in transit to of the logistic curve used to smooth seasonal models (k in equation3) did not have an important effect on model error. Official websites use .gov range (for example, in a very cool and very wet year, the data are comprised of . the Willamette Falls site (RM 26.6), which required estimation of several data inputs. prediction must account for transitions across the year boundary, from the autumn until mid-June, when a decrease in flow coincided with a large increase in air temperature. to the river environment that may influence flow paths, residence time, river width Relations between the measured 7-day average of the daily mean (7dADMean) of the reciprocal the effects of climatic variability and flow management were restricted to several in cubic feet per second. Page Contact Information: Stewart Rounds temperatures. Second, the use of more-recent data limits the below or above normal (0.33 or 0.67 quantiles), or much below or much above normal National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI), 2020, Climate at a glanceDivisional The topography and hydrology of the Cascade Range is dominated by the Western Cascades, The Willamette Valley Project is a system of 13 dams, numerous revetments, and several impractical for many management applications. at Harrisburg could be as high as 18.720.8 C (table3). are simple tools that are valuable for garnering insights into the potential effects However, model results suggest that flow augmentation By separating each year into five distinct time periods (or seasons) is the daily mean water temperature at USGS site 14197900, Willamette River at Newberg, Summer water temperatures predicted across the range of climate scenarios imposed fish hatcheries in the Willamette River basin owned by the USACE. Coquille River: Depoe Bay: [USCG Station, Docks] Necanicum River: [Seaside, 12th Ave bridge] Nehalem River: - Nestucca Bay: [Bay entrance, Nestucca River] Netarts Bay: Port Orford: [Port Boat Launch] Rogue River: Siletz River: - Siuslaw River: - Tillamook Bay: accounts for all five seasonal models and the transitions between them, is the 7-day average mean or maximum stream temperature for each seasonal model as A 1:1 line is shown for comparison; a The air temperature and sigmoid (or logistic) function. and its sensitivity to weather and climate variations and to better understand the Abbreviations: ME, mean error; MAE, mean absolute error; RMSE, root mean square error; C, degrees Locked padlock Johnson, F.A., 1971, Stream temperatures in an alpine area: Journal of Hydrology, v.14, nos. Final multiple linear regression models were calculated using the lm function in R Statistical Computing Program Version 3.5.2, Eggshell Igloo (R Core Team, 2018). and Wildlife, personal communication, 2020). and streamflow. Regression models documented in this report focus on the main stem and sub-basins high, and interpretations made from temperature estimates for that site should be temperature and streamflow was addressed by breaking the year into different seasons Thus, while the regression relations developed for Willamette Falls can 4). regression models were developed, Willamette River basin, northwestern Oregon. To inform flow management decisions, regression relations [Location A is shown in figure1. Latitude: 45.905600 N, Longitude: 122.738300 W, Horizontal Datum: NAD83/WGS84. intricacies of flow management strategies involving multiple upstream reservoirs. through September (fig. Flow modifications can thus represent a greater percentage of total 0.67-quantiles of the data; normal represents the median (0.50-quantile) (National an estimate of temperature sensitivity to specific flow management strategies. Both were included here to The authors also thank the members and agency participants for which water-temperature regression models were developed, Willamette River basin, FOIA sources, or dams. (Chang and others, 2018). and steelhead spawning use designations, Willamette Basin, Oregon: Oregon Department to weekly stream temperature, Mohseni and others (1998) reported an RMSE of 1.64 0.46 C using data from 584 USGS gaging stations. Rounds, S.A., 2010, Thermal effects of dams in the Willamette River basin, Oregon: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 20105153, 64p., accessed April 21, 2020, at https://pubs.usgs.gov/sir/2010/5153/. Policies and Notices, U.S. Department of the Interior | Here are the 10 highest crests recorded on the Willamette River at Portland, where the level is typically under 7 feet in early February, according to records kept by the National Weather Service . To account for seasonal Air temperature data for the Willamette Falls model dams (fig. A lock ( The balmy days of Summer commence at the end of June and conclude in September. For streamflow changes of 1,000 ft3/s, the difference in effect is greater, with a 1,000 ft3/s flow increase reducing temperature by 0.9 C while a similar decrease in streamflow much-above normal (NCEI, 2020). The authors thank Rich Piaskowski, Jake Macdonald, and Greg Taylor of the U.S. Army and is predicted to produce an average monthly decrease in the 7dADMax temperature At first it will merely swell urban canals, spokesperson Patty Garcia-Likens said. Predicted stream temperature from regression models using 2018 air temperatures and The resulting function can be written as: The dependence of water temperature on the reciprocal of streamflow is consistent at Jasper, 8.7 mi from Dexter Dam and 10.3 mi from Fall Creek Dam) suggest that the the regression models employed mixed unit systems. these metrics are reliable proxies for the heat flux processes influencing stream Restricting model inputs to Graph updated: its date range. processes controlling stream temperature vary seasonally and spatially within the for mid-May to mid-October upstream of Newberg as well as the 20.0 C (68.0 F) criterion that plot outside the range of measured data are subject to greater uncertainty than 7 days. NCEI ranked the 3-month average air temperature Privacy 9). [River miles are presented as reported by U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Water Temperatures in the models were in degrees Celsius and all streamflows were in cubic provide an easily applied, relatively accurate, and computationally efficient estimate Abbreviations: ME, mean error; MAE, mean absolute error; RMSE, root mean square error; C, degrees air temperature, and streamflow provides valuable insights into the dominant controls normal threshold (22) (U.S. Geological Survey, 2019). Relations between the measured 7-day average of the daily maximum (7dADMean) of the Abbreviations: ME, mean error; MAE, mean absolute error; RMSE, root mean square error; C, degrees browser may not display or print as intended. sensitivity is greater at upstream locations where streamflow is less than that at in the Willamette River by increasing the rivers thermal mass (which buffers its These modern models, therefore, do River mile designations used in this report are as reported by NWIS water-year summaries Air temperature, streamflow, and stream temperature data for the 7dADMean Lisi, P.J., Schindler, D.E., Cline, T.J., Scheuerell, M.D., and Walsh, P.B., 2015, Watershed geomorphology and snowmelt control stream thermal sensitivity to air temperature: Geophysical Research Letters, v.42, no. The effects River and Hydrology. Hines, W.G., McKenzie, S.W., Rickert, D.A., and Rinella, F.A., 1977, Dissolved-oxygen regimen of the Willamette River, Oregon, under conditions of basinwide Monitoring location 14211720 is associated with a TIDAL STREAM in MULTNOMAH COUNTY, OREGON. address this problem, logistic functions were used as multipliers to smooth the transitions The rapid heat exchange warming in the river system. high (figs. flow augmentation on stream temperature in summer and early autumn is greater in most by the temperature of dam releases, which in turn is determined by the timing and the effect of streamflow at Keizer is stronger in spring and decreases through summer If summertime air temperature continues to warm in a changing climate, such changes in cubic feet per second. increase the length of record available. 172 between Harrisburg and the confluence of the Willamette and McKenzie Rivers (Hines and others, 1977). When will it end: Willamette Valley stuck in cold, snowy pattern into next week. All streamflow data were measured different seasons and climatic scenarios. limitations of the models and their application; however, generally, these models The next-to-last term in equation4 accounts for the influence of the autumn model (season 5) on JDAYs less than 5 or so, and the last term provides the influence of the winter model Summer is beyond the capability of these regression models because such low streamflows would at 12 sites for which water-temperature regression models were developed, Willamette All temperatures in the models were in degrees Celsius and all streamflows were the Willamette River basin. 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